农村贫困的父辈代际传递与子辈户口迁移削弱效应研究

The Intergenerational Transmission of Rural Poverty and the Weakening Effect of Household Migration

笔者基于中国综合社会调查(CGSS)数据库数据,运用OLS回归模型实证检验了在不同样本下随户口迁移变化的父辈贫困代际传递效应的显著性影响,结果显示:在不同样本下,父辈收入对子辈收入都有明显的正向传递效应;引入子辈迁移变量及交互项后,迁移交互项明显削弱了父辈收入的传递效应,其中低收入、绝对贫困家庭样本的削弱程度明显要高于全样本的削弱效应。在进一步的分析中,对于未接受过高等教育的子辈,迁移能够明显提高其收入,且其对代际贫困的削弱效应要高于接受过高等教育的;而在非高收入家庭的迁移类型中,省外迁移明显增加了子辈收入,外省迁移与父辈收入交互项对代际传递效应的削弱作用更加明显。对代际贫困传递因素分解后回归结果显示,迁移强化了BMI值、教育以及社会网络对子辈收入的正向效应。最后,根据实证结论提出应完善各项保障措施,减少个人迁移的成本等政策建议。

Based on the data from Chinese General Social Survey （CGSS） database, the OLS regression model is used to test the significant effects of intergenerational poverty on the intergenerational poverty effects of household migration under different samples. The results show that, the migrant interaction has weakened the transfer effect of the parents＇ income, and the sample of the low income and the absolute poverty is obvi- ously weakened by the migrant interaction. It is higher than that of the whole sample. In the further analysis, for children who have not received higher education, the migration can significantly increase their income, and their weakening effect on intergenerational poverty is higher than that of higher education. For the non-high-in- come family migration type, the migration outside the province is obviously increased the subordinate income, the interact between the provinces and the parental income interaction on the intergenerational transmission effect of the weakening effect is more obvious. The results showed that the migration strengthened the positive effect of health, education and social network on the income of the children. Finally, based on the empirical analysis, we bring forward the policy suggestions improving the security measures and reducing the cost of per- sonal migration.