IFAD中国项目精准脱贫绩效评价:基于农民人均收入视角

Evaluation on accurate poverty eradication effects of IFAD Projects in rural China:based on household net income

基于课题组在7省区1 356农户的调查问卷数据,采用双差分析模型对IFAD项目的扶贫绩效进行了测度;选用人均纯收入作为贫困代理指标,并采用倾向得分匹配法对项目干预的净效应进行了分析,分别采用核匹配和半径匹配(0.001)方法测算了项目的干预效果,定量评价了联合国IFAD中国项目对项目区受益人精准脱贫的实际贡献。研究结果显示:1IFAD项目脱贫效果显著:IFAD项目的实施对项目区贫困农户脱贫率的净贡献为18.71%,由于IFAD项目实施而摆脱贫困的受益人总数达到80.746万人,其中直接受益人46.113 7万人,间接受益人为34.632 3万人;2从收入结构来看,IFAD项目干预对贫困农户种植业收入增长的影响最大:采用Di D、包含控制变量的Di D、加权最小二乘Di D和PSM方法分析的结果显示,IFAD项目实施使项目受益人的种植业收入人均增长了1 031.15元,且在0.05的水平上显著;3从家庭特征来看,市场便捷程度和户主学历对IFAD项目干预效果的影响最大。基于以上研究结论,本文提出了旨在提高IFAD中国项目脱贫绩效的政策建议:1应充分发挥联合国IFAD项目精准脱贫的示范效应;2加快贫困地区农业产业结构升级以优化贫困户的收入结构;3进一步加强贫困地区道路和教育等基础设施建设。

Based on data of 1 356 households in 7 provinces, this paper selected ＂per capita farmers＇ income＂ as the poverty index to measure the poverty reduction performance of IFAD projects in China by adopting DiD methodology.It adopted Propensity Score Matching （PSM） to analyze the net effect of the project by kernel matching and radius matching （0.001） methods for calculating the intervention effects.This paper evaluated the net contribution of IFAD projects to poverty eradication for project beneficiaries.The results indicated that： ① the poverty eradication performance of IFAD projects was remarkable： the net contribution in terms of poverty incidence of the beneficiaries in the IFAD project areas was 18.71%, and there were 807 460 people moving out of poverty as a result of IFAD project implementation, including 460 037 direct beneficiaries and 346 323 indirect beneficiaries.② In terms of farmers＇ income structure, per capita planting income shows a significant increase due to IFAD project implementation： analysis results of DiD, DiD with control variables, WLS methods and PSM indicated that per capita average planting income of the sample households raised by 1 031.15 yuan （at 0.05 significant level）.③ In terms of family characteristics, access to market and householder educational attainment exerted the largest impacts on IFAD project intervention effects.Finally, this article has proposed corresponding policy recommendations based on the above conclusions to increase poverty reduction performances of IFAD projects in China： ① China should give full play to the demonstration effect of IFAD projects for accurate poverty eradication;② we should upgrade the agricultural industrial structure in order to optimize the income structure of the poor households;and ③ we should strengthen infrastructure development especially rural roads and compulsory education in the poverty stricken areas in China.