中国城乡贫困变动:2004—2012

Poverty change in China: during the period of 2004-2012

本文基于2004—2012年中国综合社会调查数据,根据家庭人均年收入2 300元的国家贫困标准线和"1天1.5美元"的亚洲贫困标准线,使用FGT指数和脱贫时间两种贫困指数评估了我国城乡贫困整体变动趋势,并从城乡和地区、个体和家庭特征层面分解贫困人口构成;也考察了贫困变动的增长效应和收入分配效应;最后定量地分析收入增长的影响因素。结果表明,根据两种贫困标准线,两种贫困指数测度结果一致反映我国贫困人口规模显著减少;按国家贫困标准线,我国城乡贫困发生率下降了8.8%,但到2012年的依然高达8.6%,农村贫困人口平均脱贫时间为5.4年,而相对贫困发生率有所上升。不同地区的贫困变动差异较大,西部地区和中部地区贫困发生率依然高于全国平均水平3.41个百分点和0.22个百分点,贫困强度和贫困深度现象都还较为严重;东部地区的减贫效应十分明显,但贫困人口内部收入差距拉大问题较为突出。经济增长的脱贫效应较为显著,但增长的亲贫性有待提高;城乡、地区和贫困人口内部居民收入差距逐渐拉大,并成为反贫困的严重障碍。外出非农工作经历、性别差异和教育程度是影响收入增长的关键因素。基于此,本文建议反贫政策应瞄准西部地区的教育程度和健康水平较低、家庭规模较大的农村居民,尤其是女性户主家庭,也应加强养老保险、社会帮扶和人力资本投资,形成改善收入分配为重点的社会保障性扶贫政策体系;中部地区可以借助邻近东部地区的地理优势,通过承接产业转移持续实施"开发式扶贫"政策体系;同时,也可将扶贫标准线提高为每人"1天1.5美元"的亚洲贫困线。

With China＇s national poverty line and Asian＇s poverty line, this paper evaluated urban and rural poverty change in China from 2004 to 2012 based on the CGSS data. It decomposed the poverty change on the urban and rural areas and family characteristics perspective. It investigated the role of income growth and income distribution on the poverty change. Besides, this paper analyzed the influence factors of income with the econometric models. The results showed that： the absolute poverty decreased rapidly, however the relative poverty population increased. The poverty change was very different in eastern provinces and western provinces in China, the poverty rate was higher than the national average level about 3.41% and 0.22% in western region and middle region in China, respectively; as for the eastern region, it had less poverty population, but the income gap between poverty people became more and more serious. Although the impact of economic growth on reducing poverty was strong, we should focus on the obstacle of poverty reduction that was the income gap between urban and rural people. Lastly we found that non-agricultural work experience in urban area, gender difference and education level were the key factors to affect income. In a word, we suggest that the policies of anti-poverty should aim at the rural people with less education level and with larger family size, especially femal rural households in western region in China, and turn the anti-poverty policy to the social security-oriented aspect; for the central region, we should keep the development-oriented poverty alleviation policy. At last, we suggest that the national poverty line should be up to the ＇ US $ 1.5 for each people each day＇.