生产性公共支出、空间溢出效应与区域经济差距——基于多地区动态一般均衡模型的分析

Productive public expenditure,spatial spillover effect and regional economic disparities:based on multi-regional DGE model

改革开放以来,中国东、中、西部地区经济差距不断拉大,政府为协调区域经济发展水平,逐渐将生产性公共支出向较不发达的中部和西部地区倾斜。为了全面地评估这种财政政策的效果,在传统一般均衡分析的基础上将生产性公共支出及其空间溢出纳入宏观经济分析框架,构建了一个多地区动态一般均衡模型,并用该模型模拟了现实经济中区域生产性公共支出政策及其调整对区域经济和宏观经济的冲击,得到的结论是:(1)当前生产性公共支出空间分布基础上,新增生产性公共支出分散于各个地区,会继续扩大区域经济差距;(2)新增生产性公共支出集中于较不发达的地区时,由于较低的基础设施边际生产力和较弱的空间溢出效应,全国人均产出不能达到最大水平,但可缩小区域经济差距;(3)新增生产性公共支出集中于较发达的地区时,由于较高的基础设施边际生产力和较强的空间溢出效应,全国人均产出可达到最大水平,但同时拉大区域经济差距。由此得到的政策启示是:在现有生产性公共支出的区域分布基础上,以缩小区域经济差距为目标的次优的财政政策将新增的生产性公共支出向西部和中部等较不发达地区倾斜,靠直接刺激效应促进当地产出增长;以效率优先为准则的财政政策选取较发达地区为生产性公共支出目的地,因为较发达地区通常具有较高的基础设施边际生产力和较强的空间溢出效应。

The regional economic disparities among eastern, central and western China have been constantly increasing since China＇ s reform and opening-up. To coordinate the development of regional economy, the government is gradually inclining productive public expenditure to central China and western China which are less developed. In order to evaluate this fiscal policy comprehensively, based on traditional DGE analysis we propose a macroeconomic analytical framework with productive public expenditure and its spatial spillover, and establish a multi-regional DGE model to simulate the impacts of current regional productive public expenditure policy and its adjustments on regional and national economies. Several conclusions can be derived according to the simulation results： （~）on the base of current spatial distribution of productive public expenditure, distributing the additional productive public expenditure across all regions receives inconspicuous results for regional coordinated development; @）concentrating additional productive public expenditure in less developed regions can reduce regional economic disparities while not maximize national output per capita because of the low marginal productivity of infrastructure and the weak spatial spillover effect; （~）concentrating additional productive public expenditure in more developed regions can increase regional economic disparities while maximizing national output per capita because of the high marginal productivity of infrastructure and the strong spillover effect. Two policy implications can be obtained from the research： given the current pattern of regional distribution, the inclination of the additional productive public expenditure to less developed regions, which can stimulate the increase of their local outputs directly, is regarded as a suboptimal fiscal policy with the objective of reducing regional economic disparities. According to efficiency criteria, the optimal target regions of productive public expenditure should be the more developed regions because of their high marginal productivity of infrastructure and strong spatial spillover effect.