中国工业水污染排放的空间格局及结构演变研究

Evolution of spatial pattern of industrial wastewater pollution emission in China

我国工业企业污染物排放的空间格局正在发生变化。现有的统计数据不能提供区分区域和行业层面的工业企业污染物排放数据,无法刻画地市尺度上各个工业部门污染排放的空间格局及其演变。工业企业污染物排放的空间认知是制定环境污染控制和区域产业发展规划的科学基础。本文聚焦于工业水污染,构建了新的工业企业水污染排放的空间估算方法,估算分行业分区域的工业水污染排放量,来分析地市尺度上中国工业水污染排放的空间格局及其演变。本文构建的空间估算方法首先将全国分行业污染排放量依据产值分解到省级和地市层面,再依据企业规模校正系数、生产工艺校正系数和环境管制能力校正系数对未考虑区域差异的排放强度进行校正,最后采用适时修正法对污染物排放量的估算结果进行部门和区域的平衡调整。以基于空间估算方法估算的工业COD为例,剔除个别异常值后,2010年省级尺度重点行业工业COD排放量估算结果的平均误差为12.7%,数据质量优良,显示本估算方法较强的适用性。根据本文的结果,发现2005年至2010年间我国工业COD的减排主要由造纸及纸制品业的技术效应贡献,其中又以西部地区造纸及纸制品业贡献突出,其次是东部地区,中部地区略有贡献,东北部地区贡献为负值。其他对工业COD减排作出较大贡献的行业包括食品加工业和化学原料及化学品制造业,但不同产业的区域差异显著。基于可持续性发展的视角,技术效应与规模效应同样显著的产业应当作为区域的主导产业予以重点发展。

Spatial pattern of industrial pollution emission lays scientific foundation for pollution control policy and regional industry planning. Nowadays it is changing with China＇ s great endeavor in pollution control. Some manufacturing companies have migrated from coastal regions to the central and western regions, which also affects the spatial distribution of industrial pollution. The current statistical data and records are not capable of discerning regions＇ disparity as well as sectors＇ disparity in industrial pollution emission, not to say depicting spatial pattern of industrial pollution emission at prefecture-level. Therefore, this paper aims to propose a spatial estimation method for the industrial waste water pollution, and to examine the evolutions of the industrial wastewater COD emission by sector during 2005 -2010 and the spatial pattern of industrial wastewater pollution emission in China. The spatial estimation method proposed in this paper focuses on regional differences of pollutant emission intensity across provincial and prefectural regions, which is corrected based on difference of firm scale, processing techniques and environmental regulations through a data mining approach. Results show that low pollution emission intensity companies with high pollution density, while high pollution emission intensity companies with low pollution density. This spatial mismatch phenomenon is resulted from the uneven spatial distribution of manufacturing production capacity. Most of the cities in coastal region see pollution decrease that relates to technological improvements more than economic scale, while in the west, more regions see pollution increase that relates to economic scale more than technological improvements or two factors working towards the same direction. Such phenomenon suits the fact that different regions are situated in different development stage. Resource environmental carrying capacity should be fully considered in the rebalancing of regional economic.