我国对中亚国家直接投资的母国产业升级效应研究

The Effect of Home Country Industry Upgrading of China's Direct Investment in Central Asian Countries

当前,加强对中亚国家的直接投资不仅是"丝绸之路经济带"建设的必然要求,也是国内实施"三去一降一补"供给侧结构性改革的现实选择。选取2003~2014年我国与中亚五国国别数据,对我国对中亚国家直接投资的母国产业升级效应进行实证检验。结果表明,我国对中亚国家的直接投资,通过产业转移效应及技术进步效应有效促进了母国产业结构升级。此外,我国扩大对中亚国家出口规模、中亚国家汇率波动对国内产业结构优化升级具有积极影响,而现阶段我国从中亚进口以及中亚国家对华投资对国内产业升级也存在一定负向影响。应从深化区域贸易合作、科学选择对外投资产业、推进金融合作以及加强政策指导与技术创新等方面推动我国向中亚国家直接投资、提升母国产业国际竞争力。

China＇s direct investment in Central Asian countries is not only a necessary need of the construc- tion of the Silk Road Economic Belt, but also a realistic choice of the supply - side structural reform. This pa- per conducts an empirical test about the effect of home country industry u in Central Asian countries, with relative data about China and other five pgrading of China＇s direct investment Central Asian countries from 2003 to 2014. It turns out that China＇s direct investment in Central Asian countries has effectively promoted the upgra- ding of home country industrial structure by means of the effect of industry transfer and the effect of technology progress. In addition, the expansion of China＇s export to Central Asian countries and the fluctuation of the ex- change rate of Central Asian countries have positive influence on the upgrading of China＇s industrial structure. However, at present, the import and the investment from Central Asian countries have negative influence on it. Finally, this paper suggest that China should promote its direct investment in Central Asian countries and enhance the international competitiveness of the home country industry in the manner of deepening cooperation in regional trade, choosing outward foreign direct investment industry in a scientific way, promoting financial cooperation and improving policy guidance and technology innovation.