新疆气候变化的适应能力时空演化特征

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change in Xinjiang

当前气候变化及其对社会经济的深刻影响已成为全球不容忽视的客观问题,减缓与适应气候变化就成为两种不可或缺的应对方式。20世纪80年代以来,新疆气候变化十分明显,平均气温大幅上升,极端降水事件频率增加且强度增强,对区域水资源、农业与牧业等领域的持续平稳发展提出了重大挑战。鉴于新疆地区在整个欧亚大陆都处于非常重要的地位,分析其气候变化的适应能力及其演进状况,有利于决策者制定区域应对气候变化不利影响的策略。基于1991—2013年国民经济统计数据,将证据理论确定权重法与灰色综合分析法相结合,分析新疆各地州市社会经济层面气候变化适应能力的时空演进状况。结果表明:新疆整体的适应能力从"八五"时期(1991—1995年)至"十二五"时期(2011—2013年)呈不断上升态势,尤其从"九五"时期(1996—2000年)到"十五"时期(2001—2005年),从"十一五"时期到"十二五"时期增加幅度最大;新疆各地州市的适应能力,除了克拉玛依市,从2004—2013年变化幅度不大,且从2009年以后各地州市的适应能力高中低的相对分布格局更加分散和聚集。通过对比每一个地州市2009—2013年与2004—2008年的平均适应能力水平发展,发现新疆有6个地州市的适应能力为轻微下降的态势;在全部地州市中,适应能力最低的区域主要集中在新疆的西南部,适应能力最强的为乌鲁木齐市与克拉玛依市,其余的地州市为中等水平,并且不同适应能力等级间的差距比较大。

Nowadays the fact of climate change and its profound effects on society and economy could not been ig- nored or avoided any more. Mitigation and adaptation are the two indispensable ways to handle. Climate change since the 1980s in Xinjiang, such as the appreciable raise of temperature and the increase of frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, has been threating the sustainable development of regional water resources, farming system,livestock husbandry,et al. For straddling the Eurasia,Xinjiang is very sensitive to climate change, so it un- doubtedly could help the policy-makers to make decisions to cope with the potential adversities caused by climate change to analyze the temporal and spatial features of adaptive capacity to climate change. In this study, the methods of the evidence theory employed to decide the weight, grey synthesis analysis and socio-economic statistic data were used to assess the adaptive capacity to climate change in Xinjiang. The results revealed that： Firstly, the adaptive capacity of whole Xinjiang had been continually increased since the 8th Five-year Plan period （1991 - 1995 ）, espe- cially during the two periods from the 9th Five-year Plan period （1996 -2000） to the 10th Five-year Plan period （ 2001 - 2005 ） and from the 11 th Five-year Plan period （2006 - 2010） to the 12th Five-year Plan period （ 2011 - 2013） ; Secondly, there was merely a little change of adaptive capacity in all the districts during the period of 2004 - 2013 except in Karamay City, and the distribution of relative rankings of adaptive capacity in all the districts became more decentralized or centralized. The compared results revealed that the average adaptive capacity was slightly decreased in 6 districts of the total 14 districts during the periods of 2004 -2008 and 2009 -2013; Third- ly,the districts with low adaptive capacity were mainly distributed in southwest Xinjiang, the adaptive capacity in Urumqi City and Karamay City was the highest, and that in other districts was moderate.