巨灾保险开发:需求、困境与对策——基于预期效用理论的分析

An Analysis of Natural Disaster Insurance Demand from the Perspective of Expected Utility Theory

近年来全球各地的巨灾损失呈现上升趋势,我国也是自然巨灾频发的地区。巨灾保险作为重要的风险分散手段,其发展仍然面临着困境。通过预期效用理论模型的构建,可以发现风险偏好的类型变化、支付意愿和财富不匹配、巨灾风险集聚都导致了巨灾保险的需求不足。基于预期效用理论的结论,建议我国应该通过强化巨灾风险宣传和科普、发挥政府作用的方式,推广强制保险、进行保费补贴、提供综合保险、推行供给侧改革,加快建立我国的巨灾保险制度和有效市场。

Losses caused by natural disasters are increasing tremendously around the world.Insurance is considered effective in minimizing disaster risks.Though China is one of the most disaster-prone countries,disaster insurance is far beyond the interest of applicants.By constructing the expected utility model,we find the factors behind the insufficient demand for natural disaster insurance,i.e.,risk preferences,mismatch between wealth and willingness and the concentration of risks.Based on the findings,we make suggestions on how to set up the insurance system and develop market.