金砖国家农产品出口贸易分析——基于改进的空间引力模型

Analysis on Export Trade of Agricultural Products among BRICS-Based on Improved Spatial Gravity Model

运用贸易自由化指数、生产专业化程度指数以及空间计量方法对传统引力模型进行改进,并采用2012-2016年度数据分析了金砖国家间农产品出口贸易模式,探究贸易自由化和生产专业化程度对金砖国家不同类型农产品出口贸易影响机制的差异。研究结果表明:金砖国家间农产品出口贸易模式遵循相似需求理论,农产品出口贸易动力来源于相近收入形成的类似消费偏好;贸易自由化程度差异缩小将有效促进金砖国家间农产品出口贸易发展,且对植物产品、加工食品及烟酒饮料产品出口贸易推动效应最为显著;生产专业化程度与金砖国家间农产品出口贸易存在显著的引力效应。

This paper employs the trade freedom index,production specialization index and spatial economic methods to improve the traditional gravity model. Meanwhile,this paper also analyzes the export trade patterns of agricultural products across BEICS,and explores the differences of impact mechanism among the different categories of agricultural products triggerd by the degree of trade freedom and production specialization with the panel data during 2012-2016. It is found that the export trade patterns of agricultural products among BRICS follow a similar Theory of Demand,which means the pushing force of agricultural products export trade arises from the similar consumer preference formed by similar income;the decrease of gap on trade freedom may effectively promote the export trade of agricultural products among BRICS,of which effects are mostly remarkable in plant products,processed food and beverage products; production specialization imposes effective gravitational effects on the export trade of agricultural products among BRICS. Thus,it is proposed that BRICS should deepen their trade cooperation in agricultural products,optimize the import tax rate structure and establish the efficient international logistical system.