金砖经济体最优外汇储备数量与影响因素——基于三部门一般均衡模型的实证考察

The Optimal Foreign Exchange Reserve and Influenceing Factors of BRICS Economies——An Empirical Research Based on Three-sector General Equilibrium Model

从个体消费者、商业银行和货币当局三部门均衡出发,构建了基于防范国际资本"突然停止"冲击的最优外汇储备分析框架,并对金砖五国的最优外汇储备数量和影响因素进行了实证考察。结果表明:中国、俄罗斯、巴西、印度、南非的最优外汇储备数量分别占GDP的24.15%、14.25%、12.63%、12.21%、16.01%;降低公私部门短期外债规模、降低危机时居民资产置换率、提高银行部门存款准备金率对最优外汇储备管理意义明显。

In recent years,the frequency and intensity of the 'Sudden Stops'in international capital flows'Sudden Stops'have raiised observably,forcing emerging market economies to prevent unfavorable shocks by hoarding foreign exchange reserves. Based on the frameworkthree-sector equilibrium consist of individual consumers,commercial banks and monetary authorities,this paper calculates establishes a analytical framework of the optimal foreign exchange reserves to precaution'Sudden Stops'of international capital,and makes a empirical survey on the amount of the optimal foreign exchange reserves and its influence factors. evaluate the influencing factors of BRICS countries in case of'Sudden Stops'. The results show that the optimal foreign exchange reserves in China,Russia,Brazil,India and South Africa are24. 15%,14. 25%,12. 63%,12. 21% and 16. 01% of GDP respectively;. Reduce Decreasing the short-term external debt,cuting down asset replacement ratio of the residents in crisis and riseing cash reserve ratio of banking deposits are of significant importance for the management of the optimal foreign exchange reserves management.