基于细分市场的民机市场需求预测方法研究

Study on methods of market demand forcast of civil aircraft based on market segmentation

为解决传统需求预测方法无法准确反映具体细分市场的问题,文章提出了一种基于细分市场的民机市场需求预测方法,其核心思想是:将航线按照其机型等级比例进行航线市场细分,以"典型航线"代表细分市场,实现"座级"与"细分市场"的最优匹配,确定各型别等级飞机的合理需求。仿真算例表明,该方法结果稳定且高效可行。

In order to solve the problem that the traditional demand forecasting method could not accurately reflect the specific airline market segment, a forecasting method of commercial market demand based on market segmentation is proposed. The core idea is to subdivide the airline market according to the proportion of aircraft grade, to use the ＂typical route＂ to represent the market segment and to achieve the optimal match of ＂seat grade＂ and ＂market segment＂, and finally to determine the reasonable needs of various types of aircraft. The simulation results show that the method is stable and efficient.