土地财政对城市化发展影响——基于广东省面板数据的协整分析

On the Impact on Urbanization of Land Financial Revenue——An Analysis of Coordination-Integration of the Data of Guangdong Province

土地财政推动了城市化发展,但同时衍生出新的问题。利用1998—2013年广东省统计数据,运用协整分析、误差修正模型及格兰杰因果关系检验,验证土地出让金与人口城市化率及城市建成区面积之间的关系。结果表明:广东省土地出让金与城市建成区土地面积、人口城市化率之间均存在长期动态均衡关系及动态调整机制;土地出让金是人口城市化率提高的格兰杰原因,城市建成区土地面积是土地出让金增加的格兰杰原因。为规避土地财政对城市化进程产生的负面影响,应改变政府考核指标体系、转型经济发展模式、深化分税制财政体制改革、建立城乡统一土地市场。

Land financial revenue promotes the development of urbanization, but also generates the negative effect. According to the data of Guangdong Province from 1998 to 2013, this paper uses both methods of coordination-integration, error correction model and Granger causality to testify the relationship between land financial revenue and urbanization of population and urban constructed land acreage. The results show that there exists a long-term dynamic coordination-integration relationship between land financial revenue and urbanization of population, and urban constructed land acreage and the mechanism of dynamic adjustment. And one of the causes of urbanization of population is land financial revenue and the other cause of land financial revenue is urban constructed land acreage. To avoid the negative impact of land finance on the urbanization process, we should change the government evaluation index system, transform the mode of economic development, deepen the tax system reform of the fiscal system and establish a unified urban-rural land market.