基于现货市场条件分析下的中国农产品期货市场发育研究——以中国生猪期货市场发育为例

The Analysis of China Hog Futures Market Growth Based On Spot Market Conditions

成功发育的期货市场能有效发挥价格发现和规避风险的功能。基于中国生猪期货市场发育的两个现货市场条件——竞争程度和完善程度的理论和实证分析基础上,得出主要研究结论,一是中国生猪现货市场接近完全竞争,市场规模大,替代品种类少且替代弹性低,市场集中度低且逐步实现整合,市场价格长期和短期波动频繁,交易主体独立性高,总体上有利于生猪期货市场的成功发育;二是现货市场完善程度不高,物流和信息体系建设还不够健全,区域市场间整合程度有高有低,交易主体规模普遍偏小,是生猪期货市场功能发挥受限的主要因素。基于研究结论,提出应支持并鼓励生猪规模化养殖;鼓励并支持发展生猪养殖合作社和行业协会等中介组织;尽快完善生猪产业物流和信息体系建设。只有生猪期货市场与现货市场协调发展,生猪期货市场功能才能有效发挥。

The successful developed futures markets can play the function of price discovery and risk avoidance. Analysis the two spot market conditions affecting the futures market development - the degree of competition and the development situation. The main conclusions of this article are： China hog spot market is competitive and develop much better, market size is huge, the substitute goods type is few and elasticity is low, market concentra- tion is low and become more integrated, long -term and short -term price fluctuation is frequent, the independ- ence of traders is high, which is beneficial to develop hog futures market as a whole ; whereas China hog spot mar- ket doesn＇t develop perfectly, logistics and information network doesn＇t develop very well, market integration degree is different, transaction size is generally small, which is not much beneficial to develop hog futures market. Based on the conclusions, the suggestions of this article are： support and encourage hog spot market development step towards scale operation; encourage the establishment of the hog industry associations; improve logistics network and information network construction of the pig industry. Coordinated development between futures market and spot market is conducive to futures market better exerting its effectiveness.