新兴产业对经济发展的时变性影响——来自京津冀地区的经验分析

The Time-varying Effect of Emerging Industry on Economic Development——The Empirical Evidence from Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

本文建立了带有随机波动率的时变参数向量自回归模型(SV-TVP-VAR),以京津冀地区为研究对象,分析了不同时期新兴产业发展对地区生产总值、财政收入以及就业的影响。研究结果发现:(1)新常态时期新兴产业的发展对京津冀经济状况的影响程度大于在全球经济危机时期和经济高速发展时期的影响程度,但在大部分时期新兴产业的发展都只会对京津冀的经济状况产生负向效应;(2)如果经济增长是首要经济目标,天津应该加强新兴产业的发展,如果就业是首要经济目标,河北应该加强新兴产业的发展。

In this paper, we construct a vector auto- regressive model with time- varying coefficients and stochastic volatility, and study the influence of emerging industry development on GDP, fiscal revenue and employment in different periods by taking Beijing - Tian- jin - Hebei region as research object. It is found that, firstly, the influence of emerging industry development on the economy of Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region in new normal period is greater than it is in global economic crisis period and economic development period, howev- er, the development of emerging industry only make a negative effect on the economy of Beijing- Tianjin - Hebei region in the most time; secondly, emerging industry should be promoted in Tianjin if GDP is the prime target, emerging industry should be promoted in Hebei if employment is the prime target.