市场潜能、新型城镇化与工业空间集聚——理论框架及来自我国的经验证据

Market Potential,New-type Urbanization and Industrial Agglomeration——The Theoretical Framework and Empirical Evidence From Our Country

本文在空间经济理论的基础上,引入城镇化因素构建了关于产业集聚的新经济地理学模型,以1999~2015年我国省级面板数据为样本,实证分析了市场潜能和人口——经济——社会城镇化对工业集聚的影响及其区域空间分异,并进行了稳健性分析。研究发现:地区市场潜能的提升对工业集聚具有显著的正向影响,东部影响最大,西部最小,中部次之;3个层面城镇化因素均有利于工业企业集聚,其中经济城镇化和社会城镇化的促进作用明显大于人口城镇化,且东中部地区经济城镇化和社会城镇化的促进作用比西部地区大,而对于人口城镇化的积极作用而言,中西部差异较小,东部明显大于中西部。考虑异方差和自相关、外生冲击以及工业集聚路径依赖性的3次稳健性分析也基本支持市场潜能、城镇化与地区工业集聚度之间关系是稳定可信的。

Based on spatial economic theory, this paper introduces urbanization and establishes a new economic geography model about industrial agglomeration. It takes the panel data of China＇s provinces range from the years of 1999 - 2015 as a research object to ana- lyze empirically the effect of market potential and popuation - economic - social urbanization on industrial agglomeration and its regional dif- ferences. The empirical study shows that： market potential has a significant positive influence on industrial cluster. The effect is largest in the eastern region and smallest in the western. Urbanization is conducive to industrial agglomeration, and the effect of economic and social urbanization is significantly greater than population urbanization. The positive effect of economic and social urbanization is larger in the eastern and central than the western, but the effect of eastern population urbanization is greater than the central and western because of small differences in central and westempopulation urbanization. Considering heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation, exogenous shock and path dependence of industrial agglomeration, three robustness analysis also support market potential and urbanization have positive effect on industrial agglomeration.