呼和浩特市主要活动断裂未来危险性评价——以大青山山前断裂为例

Hohhot Main Active Faults Risk Assessment in the Future:Taking Daqingshan Piedmont Fault as an Example

通过对呼和浩特市活动断层地震危险性评价的技术途径、目标区内主要断裂的活动特征的综合分析,确定目标区内主断裂未来可能发生的最大震级;采用"时间相依"大陆模型、BPT模型及河套模型,对目标区内断裂进行地震危险性的综合评估。结果表明,呼和浩特段的发震危险性高于毕克齐段,在未来100年均具有较高程度的发震危险性,其潜在地震的最大震级均为M_S7.2。

The technology method of active faults seismic risk assessment in Hohhot city and the activity characteristic of the major faults in the target area are analyzed to find out the maximum magnitude of po- tential earthquake in the major active faults. Through technology method of seismic hazard assessment of active fault, and the comprehensive analysis of the main fracture characteristics of target zone, we deter- mine the future possible maximum magnitude of fracture in the target area. Using ＂time dependent＂ main- land model, BPT model and Hetao model, the seismic risk of target zone fracture was assessed comprehen- sively. The results show that the Hohhot segment and the Biqeq segment have a high degree of seismic risk in the coming 100 annual average. Among them, the seismic risk of the Hohhot segment is higher than the Biqeq section, the maximum magnitude of potential earthquake is Ms7.2.