交通基础设施溢出效应对新疆——哈萨克斯坦贸易影响研究

Impact of Transport Infrastructure Spillover Effect on Xingjiang and Kazakhstan Trade

本文将2001—2014年新疆与哈萨克斯坦之间的贸易额作为被解释变量,通过将一般生产函数变形,利用计量经济学软件Eviews7.2分析了交通溢出效应对新疆和哈萨克斯坦间贸易的影响,并在此基础上,加入基于不同权重的市场规模差异变量,重新考察交通基础设施溢出效应对新疆与哈萨克斯坦贸易的影响,得到结论:在一定时期内,新疆交通基础设施的建设对新疆与哈萨克斯坦贸易有反向影响,这是由新疆特殊的经济形式决定的,但这种反向影响在不断弱化。而基于不同市场规模差异的交通溢出效应对贸易也有较大的反向影响,差异越大,对贸易的反向作用越大。

This article takes the volume of trade between Xinjiang and Kazakhstan from 2001 to 2014 as the explained variable. By changing the form of general production function and using econometric software Eviews 7.2, the impact of traffic spillover effect on trade between Xinjiang and Kazakhstan is analyzed, which is reanalyzed by adding new variables based on different weight of the market size. The conclusions are as follows： firstly, in a certain period of time, transport infrastructure construction has a reverse effect on trade between Xinjiang and Kazakhstan, which is decided by the special economic form of Xinjiang. However, the reverse effect is weakening now. Secondly, there is also big reverse impact on the traffic spillover effect based on different market sizes, and the greater the differences are, the greater the reverse effect on international trade.