铁路运输量预测及灰色模型的应用

Application of Railway Freight Volume Prediction and Gray Model

铁路运输量预测对于地区物流规划有着重要的作用。文章选取铜仁市2010-2015年的铁路运输量,分别利用曲线估计和灰色模型对铜仁市未来五年的铁路运输量进行预测。结果表明,灰色模型预测精度较高,铜仁市未来五年铁路运输量会突飞猛进,到2020年铁路运输量将达到431.48万吨。

Railway freight volume forecasting plays an important role in regional logistics planning.This article selected the railway freight volume of Tongren City from 2010- 2015, and used respectively the curve estimation and grey model to forecast the railway freight volume of Tongren City in the next five years.The results showed that the grey model has higher accuracy, and the railway freight volume of Tongren in next five years will increase dramatically and will reach 4. 314 8 million tons by 2020.