不同人口变动路径对经济增长与社会保险的影响研究——基于可计算一般均衡模型分析

A Study of the Impact of Different Demographic Change Paths on Economic Growth and Social Insurance:Based on the Analysis of CGE Model

生育率持续走低与预期寿命逐渐延长,将导致中国的人口年龄结构在不久的将来从"纺锤形"变成"倒三角形",其可能产生的社会经济后果已引发政府与学界的高度关注,"双独二孩"、"单独二孩"与"全面二孩"政策陆续出台,生育政策放宽究竟会对我国经济增长与社会保险产生何种影响?本文采用CGE模型,对比分析未来不同人口变动路径对我国经济增长、养老保险与医疗保险的影响。研究发现,接近更替水平的生育率水平情景下的GDP总量与人均GDP最高,且养老保险累计债务最小,医疗保险累计盈余最大,可减轻我国公共财政负担。

With the fertility rates falling and the life expectancy gradually extending, China＇s population age structure will be turned from the ＂spindle shape＂ into the ＂inverted triangle shape＂ in the near future. The social and economic consequences that may resulted from have attracted high attention from the government and the academic circle, so that the ＂double alone two child policy＂ , the ＂one along two-child policy＂ and the ＂universal two-child policy＂ have come into being one by one. Then how will birth policy adjustment impact on economic growth and social insurance in China？ This paper employs the CGE model to compare and analyze the impact of different demographic change path on China＇s economic growth, endowment insurance and medical insurance in the future. The fmdings show that if the fertility rate rises to the level close to the replacement level, the GDP gross and per capita GDP will be the highest, the accumulated pension debt will be the minimum, and the accumulated surplus of medical insurance will be the maximum, which can reduce the public financial burden in China.