入侵害虫蔗扁蛾在我国的潜在分布区

Potential geographical distribution of the introduced banana moth,Opogona sacchari (Lepidoptera:Tineidae) in China

【目的】蔗扁蛾是危害巴西木、甘蔗等园林植物和经济作物的重要入侵害虫。该虫于20世纪90年代初在我国被发现,现已分布在海南、广东和上海等19个省市,并有迅速扩散蔓延的趋势。对入侵害虫的潜在分布区进行预测,可为实施害虫监测和管理提供参考。【方法】根据蔗扁蛾已有分布点的记录,分别在4种地理区域构建Maxent生态位模型,并采用加权平均值法对其进行整合,进而分析蔗扁蛾在我国的潜在分布区。【结果】基于4种地理区域构建的Maxent模型对我国南部地区的预测结果基本一致,4种模型的预测差异主要在新疆北部和西南部、黑龙江东部和西部、吉林西部、山西中部等地区。整合模型显示,华东和华南地区以及东部沿海地区具有较大的分布可能性。【结论】蔗扁蛾在我国尤其是南方具有较大的潜在分布空间。这些地区应警惕蔗扁蛾的入侵,同时采取应对措施防止其进一步扩散。

[Aim] Opogona sacchari is an important invasive pest, harmful to brazilwood, sugarcane and numerous other ornamental plants and economic crops. Since the beginning of 1990s, this pest has established populations in Hainan, Guangdong, Shanghai and other provinces in China, and it might have the potential to further expand its distribution. The prediction of potential distribution of invasive species could provide valuable information for their subsequent monitoring and management.[Method] Based on the available occurrence records of O. sacchari, we calibrated four Maxent niche models on different geographical areas. To predict its potential distribution, we also used the weighted average method to integrate the four individual niche models into a consensus model.[Result] The predictions based on the four individual models were consistent for southern China, whereas inconsistent in northern and southwestern Xinjiang, eastern and western Heilongjiang, western Jilin, and central Shanxi. Result of the consensus model showed that eastern and southern China, and eastern coastal areas had high suitability for O. sacchari.[Conclusion] There are extensive suitable distributional areas for O. sacchari in China. Attention should be given to the invasion, and special efforts need be taken to prevent its further spread.