考虑换乘次数阈值的城轨乘客路径选择行为分析

Analysis of Route Choice Behavior of Urban Rail Passengers Considering Transfer Thresholds

为分析通勤与非通勤乘客通常因不同的到达时间约束而表现出不同的路径选择行为差异,基于非集计理论构建了路径选择模型.该模型首先提出了换乘次数阈值概念,用以分析不同换乘次数条件下,换乘时间对乘客感知效用的影响;其次,在利用广州地铁实际路网数据生成有效路径集合的基础上,利用乘客实际路径选择数据确定乘客的换乘次数阈值;最后,基于改进PSL(path sized logit)模型的标定结果,对乘客路径选择行为进行对比分析.研究结果表明,通勤和非通勤乘客在高次数与低次数换乘条件下的换乘时间系数的比值分别为1.114 5、1.037 9,说明通勤者对高换乘次数的换乘时间更加敏感.

In order to investigate the route choice behavior differences of commuters and non-commuters due to different time constraints, the disaggregate theory is employed to construct a route choice model. First, the concept of “transfer threshold” is proposed, which attempts to analyze the difference of penalty on perception utility of passengers under various conditions of transfers. Then, on the basis of the alternative route set generated from the transit network data of Guangzhou metro, the transfer thresholds are estimated using the revealed preference data of passengers. Finally, based on the estimation results from the proposed path-sized logit （PSL） model, passengers’ route choice preferences are analyzed. The results show that the parameter values of transfer time with a high number of transfers are 1. 114 5 and 1.037 9 times that with a low number of transfers for commuters and non-commuters, respectively, indicating that commuters are more sensitive to transfer time with a high number of transfers.