基于熵权-TOPSIS模型的综合管廊PPP项目风险初步分担研究

Research on Preliminary Risk Allocation of Utility Tunnel Public-Private Partnership Projects Based on Entropy Weight-TOPSIS Model

合理的风险分担是综合管廊PPP项目成功实施的关键,我国目前尚未出台专门适用于PPP项目的法律法规,公私双方只能在签订特许协议时约定风险分担主体,缺乏合理依据。基于此,以风险承担意愿和风险控制力为风险评价指标,运用熵权-TOPSIS模型构建一套风险初步分担评价体系以确定风险因素分担方,并以六盘水综合管廊工程为例进行实证分析。分析结果表明,宏观层风险主要由公共部门承担,中观层风险主要由私人部门承担,微观层风险主要由公私双方共担,该分担结果为公私双方制定风险初步分担方案提供了参考。该评价方法为PPP项目的风险初步分担提供了合理依据,具有实际应用价值。

Reasonable risk allocation is the key to successful implementation of utility tunnel public- private partnership projects. However, there are no laws and regulations specifically applicable to the PPP project, and both public and private sectors can only agree on risk-sharing when signing the fran-chise agreement. Aiming at determining the risk-sharing bodies scientifically and reasonably, this pa-per uses entropy weight-TOPSIS model to construct a set of risk evaluation systems with the risk sha-ring appetites and risk control abilities as the risk evaluation index, and the utility tunnel engineering project in Liupanshui is taken as an example to carry on empirical analysis. Research shows that the macro layer risks are mainly shared by the public sector alone, the medium layer risks are mainly shared by the private sector alone, and the micro layer risks are shared by public and private sectors jointly. Meantime, the evaluation results provide a reference for both public and private sectors to de-velop a reasonable risk-sharing scheme. The construction of the evaluation system provides a reasona-ble basis for preliminary risk allocation in PPP projects, which has practical value.