小规模突发事件疏散模型的改进与分析

Improvement and Analysis of Evacuation Model for Small Scale Emergency

针对小规模城市突发事件疏散问题,现有模型忽略交通状态的影响,与实际疏散过程不相符。引入路径时间估计方法对突发事件疏散模型进行优化:首先利用马尔科夫路径原理计算相邻路段交通状态发生的概率;然后估计相邻路段行程时间;最后经过扩展实现对整个路径时间的评估。仿真结果表明,改进后的模型能满足小规模突发事件的需求。

Considering the problem of small scale urban emergency evacuation, the existing models ignore the influence of traffic state, which is not consistent with the actual process. To this end, this paper introduces path time estimation method to optimize the model of emergency evacuation. Firstly, the probability of traffic flow in adjacent sections is calculated by Markov path principle, and the travel time of adjacent sections is estimated. Finally, the travel time of the whole path was evaluated by Mathematics prolongation. The results show that the improved model has more practical significance, and the model can meet the needs of small scale emergencies.