北极东北航道开通对沿线国家双边贸易量的影响

Influence of the Northern Sea Route on bilateral trade volume

为分析东北航道开通对双边贸易量的影响,在基本贸易引力模型的基础上,增加"人口数"和"海运成本"两个解释变量,并通过搜集东北航道沿线不同国家2003—2015年的相关数据,建立面板数据模型.研究结果表明:两国之间的贸易量与国内生产总值GDP呈正相关,与运输距离呈负相关,与人口数呈正相关;东北航道的开通将大大带动东北亚国家与西北欧国家间双边贸易量的增长,中国、日本和韩国与西北欧主要国家的双边贸易量增幅均在10%以上,其中,日本与其他国家的贸易量增幅最大,其次为韩国和中国,这也充分证明了东北航道蕴藏着巨大的商业价值.

In order to study the influence of the Northern Sea Route on bilateral trade volume,other explanatory variables,such as ＂population＂and ＂shipping cost ＂were introduced based on the basic trade gravity model,and the panel data model was established by collecting related data of countries along the Northern Sea Route. Result shows that the trade volume between the two countries is positively correlated with the gross domestic product（ GDP）,negatively correlated with the transportation distance,and positively correlated with the population. The opening of Northeast channel can greatly promote bilateral trade volume between Northeast Asia and Western Europe countries. The volume of bilateral trade growth is more than 10% for China,Japan and Korea. Thereinto,the volume of trade growth of Japan is the largest,followed by Korea and China,which proved the commercial value of Northeast Passage.