多重临时收储政策对东北地区大豆种植面积的替代效应

Analysis on the Substitution Effect of Multiple Temporary Storage Policy on Soybean Acreage in Northeast China

以往的研究往往忽视特定品种的价格支持政策对其他作物种植决策的影响。通过宏观政策影响评估方法分别拟合1978年以来东北四省区大豆和玉米种植面积的反事实路径,得到如下结论:临储政策通过改变作物比价关系,加剧了玉米对大豆种植面积的替代;对于大豆生产优势地区,临储政策初期对大豆种植面积有一定促进作用,随后逐渐弱化;临储政策对大豆种植面积的总效应为-29.44%。因此,未来政策制定应充分考虑政策组合的比价关系,积极进行政策引导,实施地域差别化的价补分离政策。

Previous studies have overlooked the impact of price support policy of specific breed on other crop acreage. The counter-fact path of temporary storage policy on soybean and maize acreage in northeastern China since 1978 was obtained. The empirical results indicate that the policy increased the substitution of maize to soybean acreage by changing crop price ratio, and the impact of temporary storage policy on the soy- bean acreage is -29.44% in total. Among other things, the results reveal that future policy formulation should take full account of its impact on crop price ratio.