东盟-中国农林产品国际贸易流动研究

Agro-forest products trade flow between ASEAN and China

构建资源承载力-产品流动-贸易平衡的框架分析国际贸易流动,采用FAOSTA农林产品贸易矩阵数据,以东盟国家大宗农林产品净出口量为指标,刻画了2000、2010年东盟-中国稻米、天然橡胶、纤维板、纸及纸板和木浆的产品流动。发现近10年东盟的粮食生产能力和出口能力明显提升,中国从泰国、越南、柬埔寨的稻米进口量显著增加。中国对东盟天然橡胶的进口依存度大幅增加。东盟对中国的纤维板、纸及纸板等林产品的出口量大幅下降,对我国林产品供应产生较大压力。东盟-中国农林产品流动规模大、经济成本高、环境成本高、资源安全风险大。由此建议如下:完善公平、高效、顺畅的国际贸易流动机制,在更大范围内提高自然资源配置效率、改善生态环境质量;升级国内产业结构、提高资源利用效率、适度控制国际贸易流动规模,规避环境管理、地缘政治风险,保障国家资源安全。

Based on the FAOSTA database of the detailed trade matrix andforestry trade flows, applied with the regional resources flow analysismethod, and with the indicator of net export of agro-forest products, the in-ternational trade flow of agro-forest products including rice, natural dryrubber, fiberboard, paper and paper board, and wood pulp between China andASEAN in 2000, 2010 were illustrated, respectively.It’ s found that the depen-dence of China on ASEAN in agricultural products such as rice and natural rub-ber was high, with the productivity and export capacity of ASEAN increased inthe last decade. Export of forest products including the fiberboard, paper andpaper board from ASEAN to China decreased obviously, which influenced forestproducts security in China. Cost of trade flow was high, environmental impactsin ASEAN were high and regional political conflict is frequently.