基于DSR模型的中国海洋战略资源安全评估和预测--以中国南海石油安全为例

Assessment and prediction of China's ocean strategy resource safety based on DSR model--Take the South China Sea oil security for example

从海洋战略资源的开发、利用、收益安全的视角,结合海洋战略资源的特征,基于DSR模型的构建思想,综合考量资源与政治、经济、自然、社会等环境的关系,构建了海洋战略资源安全指数的指标测度体系。在此基础上分析评估了中国南海石油的安全水平和动态发展情况,发现南海石油安全度不高,2005年~2007年变化不大,2007年~2011年提高很快,2011年达到最高点,但2012年后有所下降,并分别从D(驱动力)因素、S(状态)因素和R(响应)因素进行分析,最后预测了南海石油安全的未来发展趋势,预测结果表明,至2020年,南海石油安全度处于持续上升的趋势,其中D(驱动力)因素的上升速度超过R(响应)因素。

According to the characters of Marine strategic resources security,the paper considers the relationship of resources and the political, econom-ic, natural and social environment. The paper design the DSR model safety in-dex system of marine strategic resources based on the strategy of marine re-sources development.On this basis, using the entropy method to evaluate thesafety level of the south China sea oil and dynamic development situation.Thepaper found that the south China sea oil safetyis not high, improve quickly in2005-2011,peaked in 2011 and declined after 2012. Metabolism model of TheGrey system was used to predict the south China sea oil security in2014-2020. Results show that the south China sea oil safety will rise andDfactors rise faster than R factor.