基于灾变灰模型的牡蛎价格异常波动风险预警研究

A Study on Risk Early Warning of Abnormal Fluctuations in Oyster Price Based on Catastrophe Grey Model

牡蛎价格的异常波动会损害人们的消费欲望、给养殖户带来损失并最终影响牡蛎产业的持续健康发展,有必要对其进行准确预警和管控。以2011-2016年两广地区香港牡蛎的平均带壳批发价格为基础,利用灾变灰模型对牡蛎价格进行风险预警。拟合结果表明,基本模型不能用来预测牡蛎价格的异常波动情况,需引入第三方影响因子CPI指数来优化模型。预测结果显示,若有关利益主体不作为,2020年与2021年的牡蛎价格可能会发生异常波动,需要作好牡蛎价格异常波动的灾情预警和监管。

Abnormal fluctuations in oyster prices can curb people’s consuming desire, bring losses to farmers and ultimately affect the sustainable and healthy development of oyster industry, which is necessa-rily to be accurately alerted and controlled. Based on the average shell price of Hong Kong oysters in Guangdong and Guangxi in 2011-2016, the catastrophe grey model was used to forecast the price of oys-ters. The fitting results show that the basic model cannot be used to predict abnormal fluctuations in oys-ter prices？ and a third-party influencing factor CPI index is needed to optimize the model. The forecast re-sults show that if the relevant stakeholders do not ac t, the price of oysters in 2020 and 2021 may fluctuate abnormally, and the disaster early warning and supervision of oyster price fluctuation need to be made.