Urban Expansion and Spatiotemporal Relationships with Driving Factors Revealed by Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression

城市扩张及其与驱动因素的时空动态关系研究（英文）

Urbanization improves our lives but also threatens human health and sustainable development. Revealing the spatiotemporal pattern of urban expansion and spatiotemporal relationships with driving forces, especially in terms of the ubiquitous and fast growing small city, is a crucial prerequisite to solving these problems and realizing sustainable development. Kunshan, China was used as a case study here. Eleven variables from four aspects covering physical, socioeconomic, accessibility and neighborhood were selected, and logistic regression and geographically weighted logistic regression modeling were employed to explore spatiotemporal relationships from 1991-2014. Results reveal that urban expansion in Kunshan shows an accelerating tendency with annual expansion from 2000-2014 four times higher than for 1991-2000. More importantly, the annual expansion rate of Kunshan of 28.42% in 2000-2014 is higher than that of a large city. Urban expansion and related factors have spatiotemporal varying relationships. From a global perspective, the closer to a city, town, main road and the higher the GDP, the more likely a region will undergo urbanization. Interestingly, the effect of population on urban expansion is decreasing, especially in developed areas, and the effect of distance to lake is enhanced. From a local perspective, the magnitude and even the sign of the coefficients vary across the study area. However, the range of the coefficient of GWLR is around that of the corresponding variable in LR, and the sign of most variables in GWLR is consistent with that of corresponding variables in LR. GWLR surpasses LR with the same explanatory variables in revealing regional differences and improving model reliability. Based on these findings, more attention should be given to small cities in China. Promoting the connotation of city culture and public services to realize New-type Urbanization and regional diversity policy in order to manage urban expansion scientifically are also recommended.

快速的城镇化不仅提高了人们的生活水平,也带来了一些影响人类健康和可持续发展的负面效应。揭示城市扩张的时空动态过程及其与相应驱动因素之间的时空动态关系,是解决这些问题的先决条件,尤其对于数量多、扩张较快的小城市而言。本文以昆山市为例,从地形、社会经济、可达性和邻域等四个方面选取了11个影响因素,应用逻辑回归模型和地理加权逻辑回归模型,分析了昆山市1991-2014年期间城市扩张和相关驱动因素的时空变化过程。结果表明,昆山市呈现出加速扩张的趋势,2000-2014年期间的年均扩张率(28.42%)是1991-2000年期间的4倍,而且明显大于大城市同期的扩张速率。城市扩张和相关驱动因素之间的关系具有时空变化的特征。从全局的观点来看,距离城市、乡镇、主要道路越近,GDP越高的地区,城镇化的可能性越大。此外,值得注意的是人口和城市扩张的关系在减弱,尤其是在发达地区;而湖泊与城市扩张之间的关系却在加强。从局部的视角来看,各驱动因素对城镇化的作用大小,甚至作用方向在空间上呈现出明显的空间异质性。我们的结果还表明地理加权逻辑回归模型明显优于逻辑回归模型。基于以上发现,小城市的城市扩张应予以更多的关注,并且应实施区域差异化发展政策以实现新型城镇化。