基于TOC和SPA的水电EPC项目风险管理

Risk Management on Theory of TOC and SPA in Hydropower Engineering EPC Program

针对水电EPC项目风险多样且具有显著阶段可变性的特点,本文提出全过程、全方位、全要素、全团队的风险管理方法以实现提高承包商全过程风险管理水平的目的。首先,依据约束理论(TOC)建立三步骤动态反馈环用以识别风险;其次,采用集对分析理论(SPA)中平均联系度和主被动联系度两种综合指标来研究风险定量;最后,根据联系势和全偏联系数两种排序准则寻找系统中最大风险约束。实证分析结果表明,本文提出的风险管理动态循环法有助于水电工程EPC项目承包商逐次从系统中消除最大风险,实现不同范围、不同层次、不同进度下的优化管理。

A comprehensive risk management method was proposed to improve the management of the diversity of risks and phase variability of the hydropower project EPC program, which improved the whole process risk management level for the contractor. First, on the basis of the theory of constraints （ TOC）, three steps dynamic feedback loop were established to identify the risks. Second, the average connection degree and the active-passive connection degree, two kinds of indicators in the set pair analysis theory （SPA）, were used to quantify the risk. Finally, according to the two kinds of sort criteria, connection number and the partial number, the biggest risk constraints were found out in the system. Empirical analysis results show that the dynamic risk management cycle method is conductive to EPC contractors in hydropower projects to eliminate the biggest risk gradually and to achieve a kind of different ranges, different levels and different progresses of the optimal management.