“斩首行动”会导致恐怖组织的消亡吗?——以“基地”组织和“伊斯兰国”为例

Can "Leadership Decapitation" Lead to the Demise of Terrorist Organization?— The Al-Qaeda and the "Islamic State" as the Case

[目的/意义]研究"斩首行动"在打击恐怖组织过程中的效果与利弊得失。一方面回顾与总结了"斩首行动"在反恐研究中的学理意义,另一方面评估和论证了"斩首行动"的战略目标及在反恐过程中发挥的实践价值,从而为缓解当前的反恐困境提供新的思路与建议。[方法/过程]通过以"基地"组织和"伊斯兰国"为研究对象,运用案例研究的方法,对比了两组织的结构特点和领导人更替情况,分析了"斩首行动"的实际打击效果,讨论了"斩首行动"在反恐战略中的地位和作用。[结论/结果]研究发现,组织结构的分散化程度与领导人能否实现顺利更替是影响"斩首行动"效果的关键因素。"基地"组织与"伊斯兰国"多中心的组织结构和完善的"接班人计划"削弱了"斩首行动"的实际效果,未能加速两组织的消亡。唯有加强国际反恐合作,帮助恐怖组织频仍的地区和国家恢复重建,妥善安置失业人口,解决难民问题,方能从根本上铲除滋生恐怖主义的土壤,进而最终推动恐怖主义走向消亡。

[ Purpose/Significance] This paper studies the effects of ＂decapitation＂ in the fight against terrorist groups. On the one hand, it reviews and summarizes the theoretical significance of ＂decapitation＂ in the study of counter-terrorism, on the other hand, it assesses and demonstrates the strategic aim and practical value of ＂decapitation＂ in the counter-terrorism process, which provides new ideas and suggestions to alleviating current predicament of counter-terrorism. [ Method/Process] Taking A1-Qaeda and the ＂Islamic State＂ as the example, using the method of case study, the study compares the organization structure and the leadership replacement of the two groups, analyzes the actual effect of ＂decapitation＂, and discusses the position and the role of ＂decapitation＂ in counter-terrorism strategy. [ Re- suit/Conclusion] The research shows that, the key factors affecting the effect of decapitation are the level of decentralization and the smooth degree of the leadership replacement. Multicenter organization structure and ＂succession planning＂ practice of AI-Qaeda and the ＂Islamic State＂ weakens the actual effect of ＂decapitation＂ and thus fails to accelerate the death of the two groups. Only by strengthening international cooperation against terrorism, helping the regional and national reconstruction, properly arranging the unemployed, and sol- ving tbe problem of refugees can the international world fundamentally eliminate the breeding ground for terrorism, and eventually promote the dying off of the terrorists.