基于模糊综合评价法的新疆包容性增长水平测度及评价

Based on the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method of Inclusive Growth Level Measurement in Xinjiang Province

包容性增长是新疆在一带一路的机遇中突破自身发展又兼顾边疆长治久安的必然选择。本文运用模糊隶属度综合评价法及综合评价模型从经济包容度、社会包容、生态包容、文化包容四个方面对新疆2005-2014年包容性增长水平进行测度,并运用指数平滑法对其未来发展趋势进行动态预测。研究发现:新疆包容性增长水平十年闻呈现低幅匀速上升趋势;2005-2011年新疆包容性增长水平处于"勉强包容"阶段,2012-2014年新疆包容性增长水平处于"基本包容"阶段;从分类包容度指数走势角度分析,社会的健康发展是新疆包容性增长的核心动力,生态环境恶化是新疆包容性增长的制约因素;短期内新疆包容性增长水平将保持不断上升的趋势,但增速迟缓,表明新疆未来发展仍有较大阻力。

Inclusive growth is the Inevitable choice for Xinjiang to break through its own development in The Belt and Road and also advantageous to its long-term stability of the frontier. This paper uses fuzzy membership comprehensive evaluation method and comprehensive evaluation model from the economic tolerance, social tolerance, ecological tolerance and cultural tolerance of 4 aspects to measure 2005-2014 inclusive growth level of Xinjiang, and using exponential smoothing method to forecast the trend of its future development. The study found： 2005-2011 Xinjiang inclusive levels is in ＂barely inclusive＂ stage, 2012-2014 Xinjiang inclusive growth levels is in ＂inclusive＂ stage; Xinjiang inclusive growth level is on a low amplitude constant rise during the ten years; Social development healthily of Xinjiang is the core power of inclusive growth, the ecological environment is the restricting factors of Xinjiang inclusive growth;In the short term,the inclusive growth level of Xinjiang will keep a rising trend, but the growth rate is slow, it shows that there is still a large resistance for the future development of Xinjiang.