中国高技术产品出口影响因素实证分析——基于时序变量VAR模型

Empirical Analysis on Factors of China's High-tech Products Export—— Based on VAR Model

近年来,随着产品出口结构调整,中国高技术产品出口额迅速增长,对高技术产品出口竞争力的分析成为国内外学者研究重点。选取1985—2015年中国高技术产品出口相关数据构建VAR模型,运用ADF检验、协整检验、格兰杰(Granger)因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解,实证检验高技术产业R&D投入、人力资本、技术创新以及外商直接投资与中国高技术产品出口竞争力的动态关系。研究结果显示:R&D投入、人力资本、技术创新、外商直接投资与高技术产品出口竞争力指数之间存在长期稳定均衡关系;R&D投入和人力资本能够显著地提升高技术产品竞争力并且持续时间较长,其中R&D投入的正向作用最强,人力资本的正向作用具有较长时滞性,而技术创新与外商直接投资对高技术产品竞争力的提升作用较小且具有时效性。因此,加大科研投入,注重科研人才的培养与使用,加快技术创新,提高企业自主创新能力是提升高技术产品出口竞争力的有效途径。

In recent years, with the adjustment of export structure, the export volume of Chinese high-tech products increases rapidly. The export competitiveness of high-tech products has been the focus of domestic and foreign scholars＇ research. Based on the vector autoregressive method, this study investigated the relationship between the main factors of high technology products＇ export and competitiveness using the variable stationary and co-integration test, granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis from 1985 to 2013. Resuks show that there is a long-term and stable co-integration relationship between R＆D investment, human capital, technological innovation, foreign direct investment and competitiveness. R＆D investment and human capital can significantly enhance the competitiveness of high-tech products long time. The positive effect of human capital has a long time lag. Technological innovation and foreign direct investment play a small role in enhancing the competitiveness of high-tech products. So increasing R＆D investment, accelerating technolo^cal innovation and improving the ability of independent innovation are effective ways to enhance the export competitiveness ofhigh-tech products.