我国出境旅游贸易影响因素实证研究:以国际收支为例

Study on Factors Influencing China's Outbound Tourism Trade:Based on International Balance of Payments

我国出境旅游人数已经超过德国与美国,成为世界第一大出境旅游市场,并一直保持较高的增长势头。急剧增长的出境旅游,对我国国际收支产生了重要影响。旅游服务贸易已经由重要的创汇项目转变为服务贸易中最大的逆差项目,极大的降低了经常项目顺差额。基于国际收支理论,选取1998——2016年的季度数据,对影响我国出境旅游的主要经济因素进行实证分析,证实了国民收入的增长是引起我国出境游增长的根本原因,而人民币升值对其增长起了一定的推动作用。

China has become the largest outbound tourism market of the world, overtaking Germany and the United States and still retaining a high growth trend. The rapid growth of outbound tourism had a significant impact on China＇s international balance of payments. The tourism has been transformed from a major foreign exchange-earning item to the biggest deficit in service trade, greatly reducing the current account surplus. Based on the balance-of-payments theory, the paper selects quarterly data from 1998 to 2016 to analyze the main economic factors that affect China＇s outbound tourism. The analysis reveals that the growth of national income is the basic cause of the growth of China＇s outbound tourism while appreciation of the RMB also promoted it.