基于模糊集合分析法的南水水库汛期气象水文特征分析

Study on Hydro Meteorology Characteristics in Flood Season of Nanshui Reservoir Based on the Fuzzy Sets Analysis Method

以珠江流域北江水系的南水水库的1970—2016年的径流量资料为基础,采用汛期降雨径流时程分布特征分析、数理统计法等方法分析了径流年内变化的一般特征,并采用模糊集合分析法来研究径流在汛期分期问题,对汛期分期的变化进行初步探讨。研究表明,径流主要集中在汛期,占到全年径流量的60%以上;南水水库汛期具有明显的3峰结构的分期特性:前汛期为4月1—30日;主汛期分为3段,分别是5月1—21日、7月10—30日、8月9—24日;8月25日至10月30日为后汛期。比目前的主汛期推后,建议将主汛期推后,但同时也必须要考虑到水库后期蓄水问题,以达到水资源的合理利用。

In order to increase flood water utilization quantity under the condition of flood control safety, the hydro - meteorology characteristics in flood season of Nanshui Reservoir were are analyzed. Based on daily average precipitation and daily average inflow data in flood season of Nanshui Reservoir, the frequencies of ten - day average precipitation and storm was is analyzed and the law of happen periods of ten - day average inflow was is analyzed with the method of Mathematics Statistics. According to the daily average inflow data in flood season, the flood season periodization of Nanshui Reservoir was is studied with the method of fuzzy sets analysis method. The periodization results are that from i April to 30 April is pre - flood season, h＇om l May to 21 May and from 10 July to 30 July and from 9 August to 24 August are main flood season, from 25 August to 30 October is the later flood season.