沈阳市区短历时年最大降水演变特征

Evolution Characteristics of Annual Maximum Short Duration Rainfall of Shenyang Urban District

利用沈阳站1963—2015年降水资料,采用线性回归分析、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、小波分析等方法,对沈阳市区7个短历时(10、30、60 min,3、6、12、24 h)的年最大降水量时间序列的变化趋势、月发生频次进行分析,并分析了年最大30 min、24 h降水量的周期特征。结果表明:沈阳市区12 h以内的6个短历时的年最大降水量均呈不显著的增加趋势,而24 h年最大降水量则呈不显著的减小趋势;各短历时的年最大降水量发生在5—9月份,主要集中在7、8月份,发生频次百分比在70%以上;年最大30 min降水量3 a左右短周期高频年代际振荡特征突出,年最大24 h降水量12 a代际长期变化特征明显。

Based on the precipitation data of Shenyang station from 1963 to 2015, the evolution trend and occurrence frequency in every month of annual maximum of 7 short duration （ 10min, 30rain, 60min, 3h, 6h, 12h, 24h） rainfall in the urban district of Shenyang were analyzed using linear trend, Mann - Kendall trend test and wavelet analysis, and the periodic characteristic was analyzed for the annual maximum 30min and 24h rainfall. The conclusions are as follows： The annual maximum of 7 short durations rainfall all increase, but not significantly. The annual maximum rainfall of the 7 short durations occur between May and October, especially in July and August, in which the occurrence frequencies are above 70%. The annual maximum 30min rainfall is characterized by high frequency of 3 year period, while the annual 24h rainfall shows remarkable long period of 12 years.