信息化影响新型城镇化的经验估计与机制分析——基于GMM动态面板模型

Empirical Estimation and Mechanism Analysis of Impact of Informatization on New-type Urbanization——Based on Dynamic Panel Data Model with GMM

基于2001-2014年我国省际面板数据,本文运用广义矩估计方法(GMM),计量检验和分析信息化对新型城镇化的影响。研究发现,信息化对新型城镇化的总体影响呈现一定的U型关系特点,存在中低水平陷阱,其积极影响随着信息化水平的上升而递增。进一步分析表明,信息化对人口城镇化、经济城镇化和社会城镇化的影响为正向线性关系,信息化对生态城镇化和城乡一体化的影响则为U型关系。总体而言,信息化促进新型城镇化发展存在较大的开拓空间,尤其是在生态城镇化和城乡一体化方面。

Based on the 2001-2014 provincial level panel data and using GMM, this paper empirically investigates the impact of informatization on the new-type urbanization of China. We find that the overall impact of informatization on the new-type urbanization is somewhat U-shaped, existing middle-low level trap, and the positive influence gradually dominates with its development. Further exploration suggests the impact of informatization on the urbanization of population, economy and society is positively linear, but that on the urbanization of ecology and urban-rural integration is U-shaped. In general, there is still large potential left to promote the development of the new-type urbanization in the area of informatization, especially for the urbanization of ecology and urban-rural integration.