贸易结构与中国进出口贸易:基于引力模型的理论与实证研究

Trade Structure and China's International Trade-theoretical and Empirical Research Based on Gravity Model

本文从贸易结合度的角度,探析了贸易宏观结构互补性与贸易流量之间的关系。通过在引力模型中引入贸易结合度指数,本文首先从理论上推导了贸易结合度与双边贸易量之间的正相关关系。然后,利用1994—2011年83个国家的年度数据,对贸易结合度与贸易流量之间的关系进行了实证检验。研究发现,贸易结构互补性越强的国家之间的贸易流量的确越大。这一发现解释了为什么经济水平相似的国家之间的贸易量越大的事实。

From the perspective of trade combination degree, this article analyses the relationship between the trade complementarity macrostructure and the trade flows. By introducing trade combination degree index in the gravity model, this article first deduces the positive correlation between the bilateral trade volume and the trade combination degree. Then, using 1994 to 2011 annual data of 83 countries, we have carried on the empirical test to to the relationship between the trade flows and the trade combination degree The study found that the stronger the complementary trade structure is, the larger trade flows between two countries have. This finding explains why the similar economic level countries have larger trade volume.