养老金并轨的调查与分析——以山西省养老金状况为例

Investigation and Analysis of the Merger of Pension:Taking the Pension Situation in Shanxi as an Example

文章以山西省养老制度为例,对养老金并轨制度的有效性进行调查和研究。建立OLG模型,首先运用时间序列模型预测未来工资,然后根据基础养老金计算方式得到基础养老金数目,最后预测出未来发放的养老金数目。通过对事业单位和企业单位未来养老金的比较分析,显示出养老金并轨制度是有效的,虽然存在一些缺陷,但是可以从企业年金等方面进行改进。

In this paper, we take Shanxi Province as an example to study and investigate the effectiveness of the pension system. The OLG model is established. First, the time series model is used to forecast the future salary. Then, the basic pension is calculated according to the basic pension calculation method. Finally, the number of future pension is forecasted. Through the comparative analysis of the future pensions of public institutions and business units, it shows that the pension system is effective, although there are some shortcomings, it can be improved from the aspects of enterprise annuity and so on.