淮河上游干流径流量对不同气候要素变化的响应研究

Response of Runoff in Huaihe River Upstream to Change of Different Climate Elements

基于淮河流域上游地区8个气象站点1959~2008年日降水量与温度数据,通过改变降水量和温度建立25种气候情景,利用SWIM水文模型,对不同情景下的径流量进行模拟,分析了淮河上游地区径流量对不同气候要素变化的敏感性,有利于该地区旱涝灾害的及时预警。结果表明,淮河流域上游地区,降水量的变化对径流量的影响较大,在仅考虑降水量和温度的情况下,径流量对降水量变化的敏感性系数处在1.7012~2.1358范围内,而对温度变化的敏感性较弱,三个站点径流量对温度变化的敏感性系数处在-0.0499~0.1547范围内;研究区在研究期内降水量变化对径流量的变化贡献较小,由大坡岭向下游依次为-0.0014,-0.0052,-0.0009,温度变化对径流量的贡献较大,由大坡岭向下游依次为0.0828,0.0152,0.0039,径流量对气候要素的响应不仅由其对气候要素变化的敏感性决定,也受到气候要素变化幅度的影响。

Based on the observed precipitation and temperature data at 8 the meteorological stations in the Huaihe River Basin from 1959 to 2008, 25 climate scenarios were established by changing the precipitation and temperature. SWIM hydrological model was used to simulate the runoff under the different scenarios. An analysis was also made on the sensitivity of the ruoff to different climatic elements change in the Huaihe River upstream . The results show that： in the Huaihe River upstream, the impact of pre - cipitationon runoff is bigger,if only consideringthe precipitation and temperature, the sensitivity coefficient of runoff to precipitation change is in the range of 1.7012-2.1358, and the sensitivity of temperature variation is weak, the sensitivity coefficient of the runoffatthe three stationsto the temperature variation is in the range of -0.0499-0.1547; In the study area during the study period, the contribution of precipitation variation to runoff change is small. The contribution values are -0.0014, -0.0052. -0.0009 from the Dapoling Station to downstream. The contribution of temperature change to runoff change is larger. The contribution values are 0.0828, 0.0152, 0.0039 from the Dapoling Station to downstream. The runoff response to climate change is not only affected by its sensitivity to climate change, but also by the variation range of climatic elements.