经济增长、卫生投入与健康投资效益:基于FAVAR模型的实证研究

Economic Growth,Health Input and Investment Benefits:Empirical Study Based on FAVAR Model

目的:充分利用已有变量集信息,考察经济增长、卫生投入与健康投资效益之间的动态关联。方法:利用众多变量构成的变量集,提取共同因子并进行向量自回归(VAR)估计。结果:经济增长对健康产出的影响具有两面性,卫生投入增加会带来显著的健康投资收益和经济增长效应,短期健康水平上升有显著的经济增长效应,但长期可能会妨碍经济增长。结论:政府应加大卫生投入,兼顾经济增长带来的健康损耗,并在追求健康投资效益的同时防范"未富先老"风险。

Objective： To make full use of existing variables set, Study on the dynamic connection between economic growth, health input and investment benefits. Methods： Using Factor Augmented VAR（FAVAR） to draw common factors and perform VAR estimation with the variables sets. Results： The impact of economic growth on health output had two sides. Increasing health input would significantly stimulate health oulput and economic growth. The increase of health level would promote ee.onomie growth in short time and hamper in the long run. Conclusion： The government should increase health input and consider the health luss brought by economic growth. It should prevent the ＂not rich but old＂ risk with the pursuit of health benefit.