竞争之于银行信贷结构调整是双刃剑吗？--中国利率市场化进程的微观证据

Is Competition a Double-Edged Sword for the Bank Credit Structure Adjustment?Evidence from the Process of Interest Rate Liberalization in China

在"十三五"规划大力强调金融机构改革的形势下,2015年名义上走完最后进程的利率市场化是否会推动银行业竞争环境改变,促使银行信贷结构调整以提高其经营效率,成为银行业深化改革的重要现实问题。为此,本文探讨了利率市场化进程中竞争影响商业银行信贷结构的作用机制,并通过对2007—2014年中国银行业微观数据的分析,得到如下结论:(1)竞争有利于调整银行信贷结构,但会促使银行追求信贷扩张的冒险行为;(2)中小规模、低流动性水平、低资本充足率水平的银行的信贷结构调整更积极,并且更易寻求信贷扩张;(3)竞争加剧促使银行进一步增加对长期贷款的信贷资源配置。最后本文从改善银行业市场环境和银行业监管措施方面提出了相应建议。

During the present ＂ new normal＂ economic period, the financing channel of the Chinese real economy is blocked while social investment and financing are inefficient. This creates an urgent need for deepened interest rate liberalization to make the market mechanism play a leading role in the allocation of financial resources, thus promoting the development of the real economy. The process of Chinese interest rate liberalization occurred over 20 years until the nominal ending of the interest rate market reform process in late 2015. In the process of interest rate liberalization, the competitiveness, volatility and uncontrollability of commercial banks＇ liabilities are bound to increase, and the profitability of commercial banks will depend more on the asset management business. Optimizing the allocation structure of credit resources is the key factor in determining the business advantage of commercial banks, and it is also an important way to improve interest rate bearing capacity. The competitive banking industry environment drastically changes the process of interest rate liberalization. The banking industry is facing a ＂disinfecting＂ process due to the rapid development of direct financing instruments, and the banks＇ competitive behavior has manifested in institutional expansion and price competition. Therefore, this paper focuses on the impact of changes in the competitive environment on the credit structure of commercial banks in the process of interest rate liberalization. There is little literature on the impact of competition on bank credit behavior in the interest rate liberalization process. Most studies discuss the impact of competition from the viewpoint of risk or the total amount of credit rather than the credit structure. Moreover, most studies examine foreign banks, and the samples are taken from developed countries that have completed interest rate liberalization. Therefore, this paper discusses the impact of competition from the perspective of bank credit resource allocation structure, providing an important supplement to research on the investment behavior of Chinese commercial banks in the new period. Based on the loan supply model framework proposed by DeYoung et al. （2015） and considering the characteristics of the Chinese banking industry, this paper expands the theoretical model of the optimal credit decision of commercial banks, and explores the influence of the mechanism of competition on banks＇ credit resource allocation structure in the context of interest rate liberalization. Data relating to 67 banks from 2007 to 2014 are used and collected from the Bankscope database, Wind Information database and the banks＇ annual reports. This paper examines the influence of competition on the credit structure of the Chinese banking industry. The structure of credit holding departments, the term structure and the credit structure are considered. Furthermore, the banking industry is subdivided at the microstructure level to assess the dynamic impact of competition on different banks＇ credit structures in the context of interest rate liberalization. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows. First, price competition in bank loans has a double-edged sword effect on bank credit structure adjustment. Second, bank size, level of liquidity and capital adequacy ratios affect the efficiency of bank credit structure adjustment, and loan price competition also has a double-edged sword effect on the credit structure adjustment of banks with different micro-characteristics. Third, competition encourages banks to further increase long-term credit resource allocation. These conclusions have significant implications for efforts to deepen the reform of the Chinese banking industry and formulate policies for the regulatory body.