海洋经济发展绩效评价及转型影响因素

The evaluation of marine economic development performance and influencing factors of transformation

基于海洋经济发展绩效的内涵,应用以熵值法为基础的PROMETHEE模型与可变模糊识别模型等评价方法,并借助ArcGIS10.2对2003—2013年海洋经济发展绩效的时空格局演变进行分析.结果表明:(1)2003—2013年全国海洋经济发展绩效水平显著提高,低水平地区提升迅速,高值地区增长放缓,2008年呈现最大差异,但区域间差距逐渐缩小,表征海洋经济发展稳定性逐步增强;(2)海洋经济规模运行绩效、科技发展绩效空间发展分异较为明显,海洋经济结构运行绩效、资源利用绩效、生态保护绩效空间特征虽有变动,但差异较小,可见海洋经济增长主要得益于规模扩张与科技发展的贡献.而新常态时期实现海洋经济提质增效必将倒逼海洋经济规模、结构、科技等协调发展相互提升.(3)海洋经济发展绩效的空间格局演变由多种因素导致.资源禀赋与发展路径惯性决定了海洋经济发展绩效现有水平,经济结构调整与战略性高新技术创新为新常态时期绩效水平提升注入活力,而国家宏观发展战略变化与管理体制机制完善将成为未来影响海洋经济发展绩效提高的重要客观因素.因而,沿海省份应因地制宜,充分发挥比较优势,实现综合实力全面提高,以推进全国海洋经济绩效的发展.

Based on the connotation of marine economic development＇s performance, this article studies the performance of marine economic development in China from 2003 to 2013 by means of PROMETHEE and variable fuzzy recognition model, analyzing the temporal and spatial differences based on using the ArcGIS10.2,and revealing the inner change rules. The conclusions：@The low- value areas＇ development speed accelerates,while for high-value areas, it shows a slow trend from 2003 to 2013 in the marine economic development＇s performance of China. However,the overall pat- tern presents a good transition state,and the regional gap is narrowing. The biggest difference about performance appeared in 2008, showing the stability of Marine economy development gradually en- hances. @The spatial development differentiation of marine economy performance and the perform-ance of science and technology development is relatively obvious. While performance of resource utili- zation is changed, and ecological protection performance result is small. So it shows that the ocean e- conomic growth thanks to the contribution of the scale expansion and the development of science and technology, the marine economy development will pay more attention to the industrial structure opti- mization and the utilization on the resources and environment. @Resource endowment and economic location make the material foundation for the promotion of marine economic development~ high tech- nology development and economic structure optimization provide the driving force~ resource utiliza- tion and ecological protection offer developmental guarantee~ the national development of marine strategy and policy changes are crucial objective factors to the marine economic development. There- fore,coastal areas should make full use of self advantage,adjust the factors rationally, upgrade the comprehensive strength gradually, and then accelerate the promotion of our national marine economic performance.