消息、房地产价格与货币政策

News,Housing Price and Monetary Policy

在内含房地产市场的动态随机一般均衡模型中,从消息冲击的角度,详细讨论了与贷款价值比有关的消息冲击和未预期到的冲击对我国房地产市场的影响,并比较了不同货币政策下消息冲击和未预期到的冲击所产生的动态效应。研究发现:(1)消息冲击与未预期到的冲击的宏观经济效应存在显著的差异;(2)消息冲击通过预期的自我实现机制引起了实际房地产价格的持续攀升;(3)在消息冲击的背景下,相对于盯住混合价格指数的货币政策而言,将实际房地产价格作为盯住目标的货币政策具有更好的稳定效应。因此,政府可以通过引导民众形成正确的预期,并将房地产价格作为货币政策盯住的对象,进而可以积极利用消息冲击的作用来实现稳定房地产市场的目的。

From the perspective of news shock, this paper discusses in detail the impact of the news shocks related to the loan-to-value ratio and the unanticipated shocks on China＇s real estate market with the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, which contains the real estate market. It also compares the dynamic effects produced by the news shocks and the unanticipated shocks under different monetary policies. The results can be concluded as following： （1） there exist significant dif- c effects between the news shocks and unanticipated shocks; （2） news shocks can drive the real housing prices upward persistently through the expected self-fulfilling mecha- nism; （3） in the context of news shocks, the monetary policy that takes the real housing price as the pegged target has much better stabilizing effects than the monetary policy that pegging the mixed price index. Therefore, the government should guide the public to form correct expectations and take the real estate prices as the pegged object of the monetary policy, so as to achieve the goal of stabi- lizing the real estate market by taking advantage of the effects of positive news shocks.