研发投入、地方政府财政干预与省际经济增长

R&D,local government fiscal intervention and provincial economic growth

我国未来经济增长需要更多地依靠技术进步和制度创新,研发投入(R&D)是技术进步的物质基础,财政分权体制改革赋予地方政府利用财政干预经济的权利,是我国重要的制度创新之一。在传统生产函数中引入研发投入和地方政府财政干预两个要素,提出经济增长对其自身具有惯性、政府财政干预对经济增长具有滞后效应以及政府财政干预在研发投入对经济增长的影响中存在门槛效应三个假说,采用2000—2014年我国31个省级面板数据,利用面板计量经济模型验证上述三个假说。研究认为:资本对我国省际经济增长具有显著和稳定的推动作用,而研发投入带来的技术进步对经济增长的作用十分有限,经济增长的"增长惯性"效应明显,总体表明我国省际经济增长具有要素投入粗放的特征;在特有政治晋升制度下,地方政府财政干预对经济总体产生负向作用且表现出显著的空间门槛效应,东中部地区"自由主义"比"干涉主义"更能刺激技术进步对经济增长的作用,而西部地区则可以通过强化政府财政干预、带动研发投入对经济增长发挥更显著的推进作用。

China＇s economic growth should depend more on technical progress and institutional innovation in the future. R＆D is the material basis for the technical progress. Fiscal decentralization is one of the most essential institutional innovations, which gives the local government considerable domination on fiscal and tax to adjust the economy. In this paper,the two factors of R＆D and local government fiscal intervention were added to the traditional production function, and the 31 provincial panel data from 2000 to 2014 and panel econometric models were used to test thse three hypotheses,which were＂ the economic growth had a growing inertia＂,＂ the local government fiscal intervention in the economy had a lagged effect＂ and＂ the threshold effect existed in the influence of R＆D on the economy growth＂. The results showed that the capital had a significant and stable effect on promoting the provincial economic growth and the economic growth had a significant＂ growing inertia＂ effect, however the technical progress provided by R＆D only had a limited effect on promoting economic growth,which meant provincial economic growth in China had obvious extensive characteristics. Under the typical political promotion systems in China, the local govern- ment fiscal intervention showed a negative effect and a significant spatial threshold effect on the economic growth. In order to stimulate the technical progress in promoting the economic growth, local governments should reduce the fiscal interference in eastern and central China, however more fiscal expenditure should be paid to R＆D in western China.