明斯基金融不稳定性假说评析

Analysis of Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis

2008年"大衰退"以来风行的明斯基思潮,显示出贬低、歪曲和误读明斯基核心理论——"金融不稳定性假说"的风险。该假说旨在从发达资本主义经济体系内部,去探求其所固有的不稳定性和经济周期波动所产生的根源和机制,包含扩张阶段"向上的不稳定性"的内生形成和繁荣阶段"向下的不稳定性"的内生触发这两层含义。这种不稳定性产生的过程,主要围绕经济体系资本积累的外部融资过程当中可接受的和实际的现金支付承诺-现金收入(利润)比率所出现的系统性上升的趋向,主要依托利润和投资之间,以及资产价格和债务之间的正反馈循环所产生的"偏差放大机制"。与将周期性的繁荣和萧条归咎于外生冲击对稳定经济体系的干扰的主流经济学相比,该假说更具现实解释力;但因对实体因素关注不足,它忽视了不稳定性内在产生的其他可能来源和机制。

The Minskian trend, which has prevailed since the ＂Great Depression＂ in 2008, shows a risk of belittling, distorting and misreading Minsky＇s core theory, the ＂financial instability hypothesis＂ . This hypothesis is aiming at exploring the roots and mechanisms of the inherent instability and business cycle fluctuations from within the developed capitalism economic system, including the endogenous formation of the ＂upward instability＂ in the expansion stage and the endogenous trigger of the ＂downward instability＂ in the prosperity stage. This process of instability mainly centers on the systemic upward trend of acceptable and actual cash payment commitment - cash income （profit） ratio during the external financing process of capital accumulation, and mainly relies on the deviation-amplifying mechanism generated by the positive feedback loop between profits and investment as well as between asset price and debt. This hypothesis has a stronger explanatory power than the mainstream theory attributing cyclical prosperity and depression to the exogenous shocks to the self-stabilizing economic system; however, owing to the insufficient attention to the real factors, it ignores other sources and mechanisms of the inherent instability.