投资者情绪传染、非理性决策与股市危机

Sentiment contagions and non-rational decision makings of investors and stock market crisis

我国股票市场是典型的散户市。信息不对称下,投资者情绪的相互传染会滋生非理性决策。借助传染病SIR模型分析股票市场投资者情绪的传染过程,探索股市泡沫的产生机理和形成条件,为控制和预防股市危机提供依据。结论显示预防投资者情绪传染形成股市危机的途径有2个:一是强化理性宣传,提高社会公众对股票市场运行规律的认知水平;二是拓宽投资渠道,降低股票市场潜在投资者所占比例。

China＇s stock market is a typical retail market. Under asymmetric information, the mutual transmission of investor sentiment will lead to irrational decision making. Based on the SIR model of infectious diseases, this paper analyzes the infectious process of investor sentiment in stock market, the mechanism and formation condition of Stock market bubble, which can provide a basis for the control and prevention of the stock market crisis. The con- clusion shows that there are two kinds of ways to prevent investors from forming stock market crisis： 1）Strengthen rational propaganda, raise public awareness of the running of the stock market; 2）Broaden investment channels, reduce the proportion of potential investors in the stock market.