鄂尔多斯社会—生态系统恢复力评价及驱动机制研究

Study on Evaluation and Driver of Socio-Ecological System Resilience in Ordos

在对社会—生态系统恢复力概念界定的基础上,运用熵值法和集对分析相结合的研究方法,从脆弱性、应对能力两大层面出发,构建复合系统恢复力测度模型,以典型矿业城市鄂尔多斯为例,分析恢复力的演变趋势及驱动机制。结果表明:(1)应对能力对恢复力的影响居于主导地位,2001—2013年鄂尔多斯社会—生态系统恢复力指数呈现缓慢上升趋势。(2)作用因子对于恢复力的驱动主要以二次线性关系为主,具有较大的不确定性。建议发展除矿产资源开采以外的支撑性产业,减少资源开发对环境带来的负面影响,鼓励节约集约利用资源,有效提高系统的应急能力,增强复合系统的恢复力。

On the basis of the social-ecosystem resilience concept, combining the entropy method and set pair analysis, starting from two levels, the fragility and the response capacity, we build resilience measure model of compound system. Apart from this, taking mining city of Ordos as an example, we analyzed the evolution trend and driving mechanism of resilience. The results are as follows. （1） The response capacity plays the dominant influence part in resilience. During the period from 2001 to 2013, the socio-ecological system resilience index increased slowly in Ordos. （2） There is mainly a quadratic linear relation between acting factor and resilience, which has great uncertainties. It is suggested that we need to develop support industries except to the mineral resources exploitation, and reduce the negative impact of resource development on the environment. In addition to this, conservation and intensive utilization of resources, effective improvement of the emergency response of system, and thereby enhancement of the resilience of complex systems should be encouraged.