基于GM(1,1)模型的区域社会经济与生态环境协调发展评价——以中山市为例

Assessment for the coordination between socio-economy and eco-environment based on GM(1,1)-A case study of Zhongshan City,China

社会经济与生态环境的协调发展是当前我国面临的重要议题。联合协调发展度与GM(1,1)模型可分析已发生时间点区域经济、环境协调发展关系的同时,对受制当前约束下两者未来的协调发展趋势进行预测探讨。以珠三角城市中山市为例,研究结果表明:受持续严格的产业结构调整政策、环境污染管控措施影响,中山市经济、环境协调发展度由2007-2008年的初级协调逐步增进为2018-2020年的优质协调,中山市可持续发展水平显著提升;2007-2020年间,中山市整体属于环境滞后型发展类型,但随着各类政策的有效执行,预计国家"十四五"期间,中山市将实现环境经济同步型发展。该研究的成果可为区域经济、环境政策的下一步调整提供理论支撑。

Research on coordination between socio-economy and eco-environment is an issue in China. GM （1,1） gray model associated with coordination degree were carried over into this problem. With the modeling, coordination between socio-economy and eco-environment could be discussed of the past, as well as the future. Take Zhongshan City for instance, the results showed as follow： through the period of 2007-2008 to 2018-2020 （forecast）, the coordination degree between socio- economy and eco-environment presented a trend from primary to perfect based on the strict policy of industrial restructuring and pollution-control; Zhongshan City was remain in the state of environmental-lag during the year of 2007 to 2020, but it tended to be economic and environment synchronous considering the effective implementation of various policies in 2020s. The results of this study could provide theoretical support for the adjustment of regional economic-environmental policy in future.