中国进出口贸易对税收影响的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on the Impact of China′s Import and Export Trade on Taxation

本文选取1978-2014年的GDP、进出口和税收的时间序列数据,通过建立误差修正模型,利用脉冲响应和方差分解,分析了进出口贸易对税收的影响.实证结果表明,在短期,进出口贸易对税收的影响比GDP对税收的影响小,但长期影响比GDP强;进出口贸易对税收的影响随着时间的推移越来越显著,与现阶段我国经济发展状况相吻合.

Based on the time series data of GDP import and export, and tax from 1978 to 2014, this paper ana- lyzes the impact of import and export trade on taxation by establishing the error correction model and utilizing the impulse response and variance decomposition. The empirical results show that the short--term effect of import and export trade on tax is smaller than the short--term effect of GDP on tax, but the long term effect is stronger has the characteristics of strong than GDP has the characteristics of strongl the effect of import and export trade on tax revenue increases over time significantly, which matches China＇s economic development at the present stage.